基于竞争模型的轨道交通与常规公交共线分析

轨道交通与常规公交在一定的出行距离上会产生客流竞争,研究两者的共线关系,对于实现两者的有效协调,提高城市公共交通的运营效率意义重大.通过分析轨道交通与常规公交方式选择影响因素,选取建模的主要变量:出行时耗和费用.将方式选择的影响因素进行量化,作为效用函数,建立轨道交通与常规公交方式选择的Logit模型.在建模的基础上,运用深圳市的交通调查数据进行案例分析,研究两者共线运营时的分担率变化规律.发现随着共线距离的增加,轨道交通分担率逐步增大,常规公交分担率逐步减小.在特定票制下,两者分担率曲线存在突变点.依据分析结果,提出轨道交通与常规公交线网设计的相关建议. 

Urban Rail Transit and Bus Collinear Analysis based on Competition Model

At one certain travel distance,passenger volume competition may exist between the urban rail and bus.It will be useful to analyze the relationship of collinear for improvement of the operational efficiency of urban transit.By analyzing influencing factors for travel mode choice,the travel time and cost are selected as the major variables for travel modeling.The variables are quantified as the utility function,which can help to build a Logit model of travel mode choice.The Logit model is built by using the traffic survey data of Shenzhen.The Logit model has produced some results showing share rate variation in the case of different lengths.The influence of ticket price and walking distance are also analyzed.With the increase of coincidence line,the split rate of urban rail is gradually increasing,while the split rate of regular bus is gradually decreasing.Under one certain fare scheme,the curve of split rate has a mutations point.According to the results,some recommendations for planning and design of urban rail and bus line networks are proposed for the future work.