考虑老年人出行行为的公交票价补贴政策研究

北京市现行的老年人公交免费政策在保障老年人日常出行的同时，诱发了老年人无谓出行、高峰出行、冒乘出行等问题. 针对不同出行目的、出行距离及出发时刻下老年人出行行为偏好，基于北京市第五次综合交通调查数据，构建多场景下老年人出行方式选择MNL (Multinominal Logit)模型，分析错峰优惠、阶梯式津贴等补贴政策对多方式分担率的影响，并从公共交通运能利用率、政府补贴和老年人公交支出等方面评价政策效果. 结果表明：相对现行政策，两种政策均可有效调节老年人出行行为，前者能够缓解政府财政补贴压力，但造成老年人公交支出的上升；后者侧重保护老年人群的社会福利，对行为的引导效果更显著，但仍需大量的财政补贴投入.

Evaluation on Subsidy Policy of Public Transport Ticket Considering Elderly Travel Behavior

The current free public transportation policy for the elderly in Beijing guarantees their daily trips, which has induced problems of unnecessary travel, peak travel, and impersonated travel. Given the differences of travel purposes and distance and the characteristics of travel behaviors of the elderly, we construct a multinomial Logit (MNL) model of travel mode and tests the precision of the MNL model based on the data of the fifth comprehensive traffic survey in Beijing. We analyze the impact of two subsidies on the sharing rate of different modes of travel by using MNL model, and evaluate the effects from the utilization rate of public transport capacity, government subsidies and public transport expenditure of the elderly. The result shows that, compared with the current policies, both policies can effectively regulate the travel behavior of the elderly. Meanwhile, the peak subsidy policy can alleviate the pressure of government financial subsidy and increase the public transport expenditure of the elderly, and stepped subsidy policy can improve the social welfare of the elderly, but it may result in a substantial increase in government financial subsidy expenditure.