考虑乘客感知的公交驻站和限流组合策略研究

为了预防公交“串车”现象，提高乘客感知满意度，基于预测控制提出一种考虑公交乘客动态感知的驻站与限流组合策略. 建立以公交线路上总乘客感知等待时间最小为优化目标的预测控制决策模型，运用差分进化算法求解目标站点的最小驻站时长和限流人数. 建立元胞自动机仿真模型，对比不考虑乘客感知的驻站、限流、驻站—限流策略与考虑乘客感知的驻站—限流策略的控制效果. 通过5 组情景实验，对比了考虑乘客感知和不考虑乘客感知的驻站—限流策略对线路乘客到达率和下车比例波动性的适应性. 实验结果表明，考虑乘客感知的驻站—限流策略更有利于减少乘客感知等待时间，对线路乘客到达率和下车比例波动性具有较优的适应性.

An Integrated Bus Holding and Limited-boarding Strategy Considering Passengers' Perception

To reduce bus bunching and improve the perceived satisfaction of passengers, this work proposes an integrated bus holding and limited- boarding strategy based on predictive control method, which considers the dynamic perception of passengers. Based on a predictive control optimization model minimizing the perceived waiting time of the total passengers on the bus line, a differential evolution algorithm is used to obtain the optimal holding time and boarding limits on target stop. Four control policies are studied in a cellular automata simulation model to compare the control effects: holding strategy(H), limited boarding strategy(LB), holding and limitedboarding strategy without considering passengers' perception(HLB); holding and limited- boarding strategy considering passengers' perception(HLBP). Five kinds of bus operation scenes are designed to compare the adaptability of HLB and HLBP to the fluctuation of passenger arrival rate and alighting ratio. The results show HLBP outperforms other control schemes in terms of reduction to perceived waiting time, and has better adaptability to the fluctuation of arrival rate and alighting ratio of passengers.