| 航空货物运量分形预测及R／S分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 方文清,常磊.航空货物运量分形预测及R／S分析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2010,8(1):65-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方文清 常磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津航空有限责任公司,天津,300300
2. 中国南方航空股份有限公司,上海基地运行指挥部,上海,201103 |
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| 摘 要： | 航空货运量预测是航空公司运力安排的重要参考。本文根据分形拼贴定理，由分形插值方法求取一个吸引子与航空货运量历史数据相近的迭代函数系统，建立分形预测模型，对航空货运量进行预测。预测结果表明，该方法不存在收敛性问题，数据收集简单，具有较好的实用性。货运量时间序列R/S分析进一步表明了预测值的合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 航空货运量 分形拼贴定理 R／S分析 预测模型 |
Fractal Forecast and R/S Analysis of Air Freight Volume |
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| FANG Wen-qing,CHANG Lei.Fractal Forecast and R/S Analysis of Air Freight Volume[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2010,8(1):65-69. |
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| Authors: | FANG Wen-qing CHANG Lei |
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| Institution: | FANG Wen-qing1 CHANG Lei2 1.Tianjin Airlines Co. Ltd,Tianjin 300300,China 2.Shanghai Base Operation Control Sector,China Southern Airlines Company Limited,Shanghai 201103,China |
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| Abstract: | Air freight volume forecast is an important reference for airlines＇ capacity arrangement. Grounded on the fractal collage theory, an iteration function system, whose attractor is similar to the history data of air freight volume, is founded in order to establish a fractal forecast model to realize freight volume forecast. It is showed that this method has no convergence property and collects the data conveniently. Therefore, it has good value in practice. The R/S analysis of air freight volume time series further imporved the rationality of the forecast value. |
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| Keywords: | Air freight volume fractal collage theory R/S analysis forecast model |
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