基于灰色层次分析法的CBTC系统风险综合评价

为了对CBTC(基于通信的列车控制)系统进行风险综合评估,在层次分析法(AHP)基础上,提出了基于灰色层次分析法(GAHP)的系统风险评估方法。根据专家打分法获得各指标的样本矩阵,通过灰类和相应的白化权函数处理样本矩阵,得出灰色评价矩阵,利用组合权重和灰色评价矩阵对系统风险进行了综合评估。通过对某公司的CBTC系统进行实例计算和评估,结果表明,在十分制的评价等级中,CBTC系统风险综合评价结果为8.0043分,即CBTC系统是低风险的系统,使用GAHP对CBTC系统进行风险综合评价的方法合理可行。

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of CBTC System Based on Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

In order to evaluate comprehensive risk of CBTC system,a system risk assessment method based on GAHP is proposed.Built on AHP,a sample matrix of each index ac-cording to experts'scoring is used,which is processed with the gray type and the corresponding whitening weight func-tion,to get the gray evaluation matrix.Then,a combined weight and gray evaluation matrix is used to evaluate the comprehensive risk of the system.Through the example of calculation and evaluation of Alstom's CBTC system,the result indicates that in the Ten-point system of evaluation grade, the risk evaluation of CBTC system is 8.0397 points,it means CBTC system is a low-risk system.This study proves that using GAHP to evaluate comprehensive risk of CBTC system is reasonable and feasible.