| 组合预测方法在我国铁路客流预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄召杰,陈伟. 组合预测方法在我国铁路客流预测中的应用[J]. 交通科技与经济, 2011, 13(4): 96-98,102 |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄召杰 陈伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州交通大学,甘肃兰州,730000
2. 潍坊市体校,山东潍坊,261000 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学准确地预测铁路客运量是制定铁路网规划的基础。目前,运量预测的模型很多,单一模型并不能完全反映运量的变化规律和信息,因此,应采用Box-Jenkins模型和灰色预测模型相组合的预测模型方法对我国的铁路客运量进行预测,结果表明,组合预测模型能够提高我国铁路客运量的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 Box-Jenkins模型 灰色预测模型 铁路客流 预测模型 |
Combination Forecast Method of China Railway Passenger Flow Forecast in the Application |
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| HUANG Zhao-jie,CHEN Wei. Combination Forecast Method of China Railway Passenger Flow Forecast in the Application[J]. Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications, 2011, 13(4): 96-98,102 |
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| Authors: | HUANG Zhao-jie CHEN Wei |
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| Affiliation: | HUANG Zhao-jie1,CHEN Wei2(1.Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730000,China,2.Weifang Sports School,Weifang 261000,Shandong,China) |
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| Abstract: | Scientific and accurate prediction of railway passenger rail network planning formulated the foundation.At present,traffic volume forecast model many,single a model cannot fully reflect the change rule and volume,so this paper using Box information Jenkins model and gray prediction-combined forecasting model model to predict the railway passenger in China,the results show that the combination forecast model of China railway passenger can improve the prediction precision. |
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| Keywords: | combination forecast Box-Jenkins model grey forecasting model railway passenger prediction model |
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