|
|||||
|
|
| 灰色模型在中长期用水量预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 张鑫,赵晴,史成波.灰色模型在中长期用水量预测中的应用[J].交通科技与经济,2011,13(4):113-115. |
| 作者姓名： | 张鑫 赵晴 史成波 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江工程学院土木与建筑工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150050 2. 广州大学土木工程学院,广东广州,510006 3. 中国市政工程中南设计研究总院,湖北武汉,430010 |
| 摘 要： | 为实现供水管网经济、可靠、科学的规划改扩建,给出一种基于记录时间较短、历史数据较少的用水量序列的GM(1,1)预测方法。该预测方法把原始用水量序列累加处理生成新序列后,用指数关系式拟合,通过构造参数矩阵,确定辩识参数,建立灰色模型的微分方程。通过对灰色预测方法建模机理的研究建立城市用水量预测GM(1,1)模型,并以东北某大型城市用水量为原始数据进行实际预测,模型精度检验的结果表明该模型的预测等级为高精度预测。该预测方法应用于S市的中长期用水量预测,为S市供水规划改扩建提供有效依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 供水管网 规划 改扩建 用水量预测 灰色模型 |
The Application for Prediction of Mid and Long Term Water Demand |
|
| ZHANG Xin,ZHAO Qing,SHI Cheng-bo.The Application for Prediction of Mid and Long Term Water Demand[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2011,13(4):113-115. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xin ZHAO Qing SHI Cheng-bo |
| Institution: | ZHANG Xin1,ZHAO Qing2,SHI Cheng-bo3(1.School of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Heilongjiang Institute of Technology,Harbin 150050,China,2.School of Civil Engineering,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,3.Central and Southern China Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute 430010,China) |
| Abstract: | To economically,reliably and scientifically implement modification and extension of water supply system,the GM(1,1) prediction method was presented based on water demand series of short record time and less historical data.After creating new series by accumulated generated the original water demand series,this forecasting method built a differential equation of gray model by fitting with exponential formula,constructing parameter matrix and ascertaining parameter identification.The GM(1,1) model is establis... |
| Keywords: | water supply network planning rebuilding and extending water demand forecast gray model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |