关于城市交通需求预测理论现状与发展的研究

四阶段法是交通需求预测的经典方法，分为交通发生、交通分布、交通方式划分和交通分配四个阶段，四阶段的基本模型和算法在宏观交通规划中发挥着重要的作用。然而随着交通规划管理的发展，四阶段法也暴露出自己的局限性。本文将分析四阶段法的局限性和探讨其它改善的交通需求预测模型。

Study on the present situation and development of urban traffic demand forecasting theory

Four-step method is the classic method of traffic demand forecast, which are divided into traffic generation, traffic distribution, transportation modes define and traffic assignment. The basic model and algorithm of Four-step method plays an important role in macroscopic traffic planning. But during the development of traffic planning management the limitations of Four-step method is funded. This paper will analyze about the limitation of Four-step method and discusses other improved traffic demand forecast models