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| 基于自回归模型的船舶姿态运动预报 | |
| 引用本文： | 马洁,韩蕴韬,李国斌.基于自回归模型的船舶姿态运动预报[J].舰船科学技术,2006,28(3):28-30. |
| 作者姓名： | 马洁 韩蕴韬 李国斌 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京机械工业学院,计算机及自动化系,北京,100085;哈尔滨工程大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001 2. 哈尔滨工程大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001;中国船舶重工集团公司,北京,100861 3. 哈尔滨工程大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001 |
| 摘 要： | 介绍了自回归时间序列分析法的建模预报原理,并给出了船舶纵摇运动预报应用实例。为检验船舶纵摇运动预报效果,还用船舶纵摇观测数据进行了仿真研究,将真实曲线与预测曲线比较,观察其拟合程度的好坏。实例分析表明,自回归预报算法简单且容易实现,预报精度约为4.6%左右。自回归时间序列分析法亦可用于船舶横摇、首摇等姿态的时间序列预报,该方法在工程中具有很大的实用价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 自回归模型 纵摇运动预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-7649（2006）03-0028-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-10 |
Prediction of ship pitching motion based on AR method |
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| MA Jie,HAN Yun-tao,LI Guo-bin.Prediction of ship pitching motion based on AR method[J].Ship Science and Technology,2006,28(3):28-30. | |
| Authors: | MA Jie HAN Yun-tao LI Guo-bin |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Computer Science and Automation, Beijing Institute of Machinery, Beijing 100085, China; 2. Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China; 3. China Shipbuilding industry Corporation, Beijing 100861 ,China |
| Abstract: | This article mainly introduces the principle of the prediction for auto regression modeling and recommends the AR arithmetic of prediction for ship pitching motion in detail.In order to check the effect of prediction for ship pitching motion,the emulation research is done by a set of observation data of ship model pitching motion,the actual curve is compared with the prediction curve to estimate the result.The example shows that the AR arithmetic of prediction is simple and actualized easily.Its prediction precision is about 4.6 %.The time series analysis also can be used in ship pitching and heaving time series prediction.Those indicate that the prediction method is valuable for engineering practice. |
| Keywords: | time series analysis Auto-Regressive model pitching motion prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |