基于深圳本土化MOVES模型微观层次敏感性分析

为了使用户在数据资源匮乏的情况下,能够快速针对模型关键参数进行数据收集,文中在对MOVES模型进行参数本土化修正的基础上,引用经济学常用的敏感度系数(SAF)评价指标概念,通过定义的 SA F等级,进行了MOVES中速度、气象等参数对深圳市常见车型排放因子的影响程度分析。研究表明,当速度小于20 km/h时,各种污染物的 SA F在1~6之间变化,属于敏感参数;车龄为0~3年的新车其污染物的 SA F>1,各车型劣化较快;硫含量对各车型SO2排放因子的 SA F≥1,属于敏感参数,雷氏蒸汽压只对私家车的CO排放有影响;温度对柴油车型的T HC ,CO和PM2.5的 SA F≤0.1,属于不敏感参数,湿度对于中重型车、社会中大巴、公交车的 THC ,CO ,PM2.5排放因子的SA F≤0.1,属于不敏感参数。各参数针对不同车型的不同污染物,表现出不同的敏感性。 

A Micro level Sensitivity Analysis of Shenzhen-localized MOVES Model

To enable the users to collect the data regarding the key model parameters quickly under the circum‐stance of lacking the data resources ,this paper ,based on localized MOVES model ,introduces the concept of sensitivity a‐nalysis factors (SAF) commonly used in economics and investigates the degree of the influences of the parameters inclu‐ding speed and meteorology etc .on the emission factors of common vehicles in the city of Shenzhen ,China ,based on the defined grades of the absolute values of SAF .The results show that the SAF values of various pollutants range from one to 6 when the speed is less than 25 km/h .Thus ,the speed is considered as a sensitive parameter ;the SAF values of the vehicles at the age of 0~3 years are larger than one and are subject to very rapid deterioration ;the sulfur contents are sensitive parameters only for SO2 emission factors of vehicles whose SAF values are greater than one .The Reye vapor pressure (RVP) has an effect on CO emissions of private vehicles in particular ;temperature is considered as an insensitive parameter for T HC ,CO and PM 2 .5 of the diesel vehicles ,and the humidity is not a sensitive parameter for medium and heavy duty trucks ,community buses and transit buses ,with the values of SAF less than 0 .1 .The model parameters show different sensitivities for different pollutants from various types of vehicles .