城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价

为评价城市轨道交通车站内发生拥挤踩踏事故的风险,对国内典型的城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故进行统计分析,并运用事故树理论对事故致因进行定性分析和研究。结合事故树分析结果建立城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故的评价指标体系,运用数据包络法(DEA )建立拥挤踩踏事故的风险评价模型。以北京海淀黄庄地铁站为例进行风险评价模型的应用与分析。结果表明,有75%的评价单元达到了DEA有效的标准,且非DEA有效评价单元的相对安全效率指数均在0.9以上。评价结果与车站实际情况基本相符,验证了评价模型的准确性与实用性。 

Risk Assessment of Crowd Crushing and Tramping Accidents at Metro Rail Transit Stations

In order to assess the risk of crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations ,the typical crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations in China were analyzed .The theory of fault tree was used to qualitatively analyze the cause of accidents .The indicator system of the crowd crushing and tramping ac‐cidents at metro rail transit stations was proposed and developed in combined with the results of fault tree analysis .Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used in the establishment of risk assessment model of crowd crushing and tramping acci‐dents .Huangzhuang Subway Station of Haidian ,Beijing was selected as a case study to test and analyze the risk assess‐ment model .The results show that 75% of the decision‐making units reach the DEA efficient standard ,and the relative safety efficiency indices of the decision‐making units ,which are none‐DEA efficiency ,are more than 0 .9 .The test results are generally consistent with the real situation ,which proves that the proposed risk assessment model is practical .