世行和亚开行对中国铁路效益评估的借鉴

我国铁路项目经济效益评估方法存在较多问题,如无法完全涵盖项目产生的效益范围、部分参数指标难以计量等,已无法适应当前铁路行业尤其是高速铁路的快速发展.从评估流程及所需指标等方面对世界银行、亚洲开发银行及中国的铁路经济效益评估方法进行总结对比,分析各方法的优缺点并指出我国可借鉴之处.基于此,提出新的适用于我国铁路项目经济效益的评价办法,新方法基于交通预测,更侧重量化由环境因素引起的费用和效益,同时注重项目分配效果和项目周期内的环境、可持续性风险处理等问题,具有一定理论和实践价值.

Railway Benefit Assessment Summary of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank

Many problems are still existed in China railway economic assessment methodologies, such as it can’t fully cover the scope of benefits generated by the project, some parameters are difficult to measure etc., which is unable to adapt to the current railway industry especially the rapid development of high- speed railways. We summarized the railway projects economic evaluation methods used in World Bank, Asian Development Bank and China in basic requirements, the evaluation process and indicators, advantages and disadvantages, indicated the experiences that can be referenced in China’s actual practice. A new approach is proposed which is based on traffic demand forecast, and focuses on environment cost, benefit as well as and sustainability of the project will also be introduced in the process. The newly proposed approach has certain theoretical and practical value.