高铁快运产品货流分担率计算方法研究

考虑客户对高铁快运产品的选择行为与高铁快运产品供给的相互关系，设计了基于供需匹配的两阶段高铁快运产品货流分担率计算方法.第1阶段考虑客户对高铁快运产品的选择意愿，构建高铁快运产品效用函数，建立考虑货流类型的高铁快运产品货流分担率计算模型，以刻画客户选择行为的差异和货流结构的差异对货流分担率的影响；第2阶段考虑高铁快运产品的供给特征，设计与客户选择效用值相关的货流转移概率的计算方法，并修正第1阶段的货流分担率计算结果.最后，以哈大高铁通道为例，对本文提出的方法进行验证.研究结果表明，考虑供需关系的高铁快运产品分担率计算方法更符合实际.

Calculation Method of the Freight Flow Sharing Rate of High-speed Railway Express Products

Considering the relationship between customer's choice and the supply of high-speed railway express products, a two-stage high-speed railway express product freight flow sharing rate calculation method based on supply-demand matching is designed. The customer's willingness to choose high-speed railway products is considered in the first stage, the utility function of high-speed railway express product is constructed，and a model for calculating the freight flow sharing rate of high-speed railway products is established considering the types of freight flows to reflect the difference of customer choosing behavior and the difference of freight flow structure. The characteristics of high-speed railway products supply is considered in the second stage, a method for calculating the freight flow shifting probability related to the customer's choice utility value, which is designed to modify the result of the first stage. Finally, taking the Harbin-Dalian corridor as an example, the method proposed in this paper is verified. The research results show that the calculation method of the share rate of high-speed railway transport products considering the relationship between supply and demand is more practical.