双参考点路径选择模型及其实证研究

针对日常出行决策中的不确定性,本文基于前景理论对双参考点情况下的路径选择行为进行研究.首先,以可接受的最早到达时间和工作开始时间作为双参考点,建立了基于前景理论的路径选择模型.然后,设计调查问卷,对问卷中4种情景下的路径选择结果进行统计,运用非线性回归方法估计双参考点路径选择模型的价值函数和权重函数的参数值,并将参数估计结果与已有文献的参数估计值进行对比分析.结果表明,单参考点情况下得到的参数值并不适用于双参考点情况,同时确定了价值函数为非对称曲线,期望到达时间偏于工作开始时间,在晚到的收益区间价值函数曲线斜率更陡.

Two Reference Points’Route Choice Model and Its Empirical Study

Aiming at the uncertainty in the daily travel decision, this paper investigates the route choice behavior under the condition of two reference points based on the prospect theory. First of all, the route choice model based on the prospect theory is proposed by taking the acceptable earliest arrival time and the working start time as the two reference points. Then, a questionnaire is designed and the results of the route choice in the four scenarios are counted. Using the nonlinear regression method, we estimate the parameters of the value function and the weight function of the two reference points’route choice model. Furthermore, the parameter estimation results are compared with the parameters estimated in the previous literature. The results show that the parameter values obtained in the case of single reference point do not apply to the case of two reference points. At the same time, it is determined that the value function is an asymmetric curve, and the expected arrival time is close to the working start time. The slope of the value function curve is steeper in the late arrival gain interval.