节假日公路免费政策下城际交通行为特性

由于缺乏对节假日城际出行行为及节假日高速公路免费政策实施效果的深入研究，导致一些政策产生了负面影响，造成高速公路严重拥堵.本文结合 2017年春节调查数据，构建并估计分层 Logit模型，研究节假日高速公路免费政策下城际交通方式和出发日期联合选择的行为特性.基于模型结果，采用弹性分析研究不同免费日期下出行者行为特性，并通过场景仿真评价多种免费时段设置方案对城际交通出行结构和高峰日交通量的影响.结果表明，出行结构和高峰日交通量对不同免费日期的敏感度不同，有必要对免费时段设置进行讨论.推荐分时优惠政策，在有效调整出行结构的情况下，能避免加剧高峰日的交通拥堵.

The Behavior Characteristics of Inter-city Travel under the Implication of Expressway Toll-free Policy during Holiday

Charge reduction measurements on existing toll roads are widely implemented to promote an efficient use of the expressways and to reduce congestion on the public transit networks during public holidays. However, some measurements have negative effects. A deep understanding of how the policy affects intercity traveling behavior is critical for better policymaking. This paper aims to investigate the behavior characteristics of joint mode and departure date choice under the implication of expressway toll- free policy. A nested Logit model is developed and estimated based on survey data during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday in 2017. The policy impact is further discussed by elasticity and scenario simulations. The results indicate that the expressway toll-free on different dates have very different effect on modal splits, as well as on car volume of rush days. Policy coordination regarding toll-free period is needed to ensure a significant effect on raising car share and reduce the road traffic congestion at the same time. The time- differential toll- free policy is recommended rather than the current toll-free policy or extending/shortening the toll-free period.