低限速公路车速选择行为分析与建模

我国限速值低于 60 km/h的公路上超速 50%以下仅给予警告处分，部分低限速公路无交通监控设施，超速现象严重.以北京市郊某限速 40 km/h的公路路段为背景，设计并实施意向偏好调查(Stated Preference Survey，SP调查)，通过分析 SP数据，并建立随机效用-后悔混合模型，剖析驾驶人车速选择的影响因素，探索超速行为机理.结果表明，限速标志对车速有一定规范作用，其他车辆平均车速的影响会弱化违法监控设备的效果；性别、驾龄、驾驶车型和接受超速处罚的经历均对车速选择行为有显著影响；驾驶人面对超速带来的收益和损失，遵循后悔最小化原则进行决策.

Analysis and Modeling of Speed Choice Behavior on Low Speed-limit Road

It is specified that if caught speeding less than 50% on the road under the 60 km/h limit, only a warning sanction would be received, and few traffic monitors are installed, so speeding violations are common on some low- speed limit road. In this paper, a road segment located in the suburban of Beijing was selected as research object, and a stated preference (SP) survey was designed. By analyzing SP data, the factors associated with speed choice behavior is studied, and hybrid random utility-regret models are established, furthermore, the mechanism of speeding is explored. Results show that speed limit sign constrained speeding to some degree, other vehicles’average speed have stronger impact on some drivers’speed choice to the extent that traffic monitors are neglected; the factors including gender, driving experience, vehicle type and speeding penalty experience have a significant impact on speed choice behavior; drivers tend to follow regret minimization rule when measuring speeding loss and benefit to make decisions.