交通事件下快速路拥堵蔓延消散时空范围模型

研究了交通事件下拥堵蔓延消散的时空范围分析方法与模型,交通事件引发的拥堵会以某一初始蔓延速度向上游蔓延,直至达到最大蔓延边界后开始消散.通过对事件下拥堵蔓延速度的影响因素进行量化分析,建立了时变的拥堵蔓延速度模型;然后通过收集处理数据,进行参数估计;最后利用实际数据,进行了模型的实例应用,对不同情况下的交通拥堵蔓延消散规律进行了研究.该模型可预测交通事件下的交通拥堵边界和持续时间,便于交管部门制定缓堵策略.

A Temporal and Spatial Model of Congestion Propagation and Dissipation on Expressway Caused by Traffic Incidents

A model is developed to depict the spatial and temporal characteristics of congestion propagation under a traffic incident. The congestion propagates from the incident sections to upstream at an initial speed and it dissipates when the congestion boundary gets maximal. According to quantitative analysis, a timevariant model of congestion propagation speed is proposed. Then the parameters of the model is fixed based the data. Finally, the spreading and dissipation of the congestion under different conditions are investigated using the model. It is proved that the model can predict the boundary and time of congestion under traffic incident. It is helpful the management of congestion.