机动车出行需求管理对路网运行影响的系统分析方法

现有研究通过建立由路段组成的路网模型分析需求管理效果,存在模型复杂、参数标定难、缺乏机理性分析等问题,本文通过对路网运行提炼出若干系统级要素,并建立描述各要素相互关系的理论模型,研究需求调控对路网运行影响的机理,进而给出需求管理的一般性控制模型.以出行总量控制、错峰出行、出行距离控制为例对模型进行了仿真验证.最后讨论了模型应用及延伸理论研究.本文给出了新的高效分析需求调控问题的理论框架,在交通运行分析及仿真领域具有广泛的应用前景.

Effect Analysis of Vehicle TDM on Urban Road Network Operation Based on System Theory

In existing researches, network models consisted with links need to be built for the analysis of travel demand management(TDM), where there are some problems, including high complexity, difficult to calibration, lack of mechanism analysis. Several system-level elements and a theoretical model are proposed that describes the relationship between the elements. Based on it, the mechanism of the effect of TDM on road network operation is studied, and a general control model of TDM is proposed. Total quantity restriction of travel times, staggered shifts and travel distance restriction are taken as examples for simulating the proposed model. Results show that the proposed methodology provides an efficient theoretical frame for the analysis of TDM, and has broad prospect in application of traffic operation analysis and simulation.