Collision scenarios and probabilistic collision damage

This paper examines the influence of collision scenario random variables on the extent of predicted damage in ship collisions. Struck and striking ship speed, collision angle, striking ship type and striking ship displacement are treated as independent random variables. Other striking ship characteristics are treated as dependent variables derived from the independent variables based on relationships developed from worldwide ship data. A Simplified Collision Model (SIMCOL) is used to assess the sensitivity of probabilistic damage extent to these variables. SIMCOL applies the scenario variables directly in a time-stepping simultaneous solution of internal (structural) and external (ship) problems. During the simultaneous solution SIMCOL also calculates struck ship absorbed energy in the longitudinal and transverse directions. These results are compared to absorbed energy estimates based on uncoupled external dynamics only. The necessity and effectiveness of this approach is examined.