两栖水上飞机起降安全风险传播机制

两栖水上飞机起降阶段事故频发,研究其安全风险具有重要意义.为了探究两栖水上飞机起降安全风险传播机理,基于疾病传染SEIRS模型,考虑两栖水上飞机起降安全风险的传播效应和延迟效应,构建了无标度网络上的两栖水上飞机起降安全风险传播延迟(D-SEIRS)模型,利用Routh-Hurwitz判据推导分析了模型平衡点的稳定性,求...

Propagation Mechanism of Safety Risk During Take-off and Landing of Amphibious Seaplanes Based on D-SEIRS Model

It is of great importance to study the safety risk of amphibious seaplanes during their take-off and landing, since accidents occur frequently in these two phases. Based on the SEIRS model for disease transmission, considering the propagation and delay mechanism on safety risk of amphibious seaplane during take-off and landing, a risk propagation delay(D-SEIRS)model based on a scale-free network is developed to study the propagation mechanism of safety risk during the take-off and landing of amphibious seaplanes. The Routh-Hurwitz Criterion is used to analyze the stability of the equilibrium in the proposed model and solve for the steady-state density(SSD)and basic regeneration number of the proposed model. A numeric simulation based on the MATLAB software is performed using the proposed model, which discloses the dynamic propagation law of the safety risk during the take-off and landing of amphibious seaplanes. Study results show that both the effective propagation rate(EPR) and the propagation delay time(PDT)can lead to the increase of the steady-state density of the infected nodes of the network; the propagation delay can reduce the risk propagation threshold in the network and accelerate the emerging of risk outbreak state; the propagation rates of both latent nodes and infected nodes will lead to an increase in the steady-state density of infected nodes and latent nodes, and the effective propagation rate of latent nodes has a more prominent impact on risk propagation over the network than that of the infected nodes.