计量经济模型预测运量的探讨

根据地量经济学原理及运输业的特点，提出二步预测运量的思路。首先，根据投入产出原理，投入决定国民经济发展水平，又根据运输业的特点，国民经济发展水平决定运量水平，按此思路，能找出运量发生的直接根源，用直接影响运量发生的因素，通过二步计量经济模型，来预测运量。文章根据某省的实际资料，建立了模型，并对模型进行了分析。

Study on Predicting Traffic Volume with Ecomometrics Model

Based on the principle of national econometrics and the features of transport service, an idea of two-step prediction for traffic volume is presented in the paper.The first step is to predict the level of national economy development from how much will be inputed.The second step is to predict traffic volume from the level. Following the idea, the origin generating directly the traffic volume can be found. With the factors that directly influence traffic volume and the two-step econoimetrics model the prediction of traffic volume can be carried out.A model was established, according to the information of a province of China,and analysed.