Research on the method of shipping risk early-warning based on matter-element theory |
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Authors: | Yu Zhang Bo Wang and Zhen-dong Tan |
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Institution: | [1]School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China [2]Military Transportation Institute of the General Logistics Department, Tianjin 300161, China |
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Abstract: | The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the
risk brings heavy loss. The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic, so the key of early-warning is to choice risk early-warning
index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively. According to the element extension theory, the rhombus inference model
is applied to establish the index system. And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of
multi-index performance parameter, which is developed by the extension engineering method. Finally, the main shipping risks
and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data, which shows the effective and feasible
of the shipping risk early-warning method. |
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Keywords: | |
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