高速铁路动态票价制定策略

为提高高速铁路在客运市场中的竞争力,文中通过浮动定价机制,达到乘客满意度提高和运营收益增加的双重目标。文中利用数据挖掘技术,建立线路每日发售量数据库,并通过多条件筛选的方法对未来的发售量进行预测。通过实时校验的方法使数据库自净,提高预测精度,还原真实的购票需求。建立动态期望模型,采用动态期望的方法建立随乘客需求变化的动态票价调整模型。并采用蒙特卡罗算法进行数值仿真,验证此模型可达到乘客满意度提高与运营收益同时增加的效果。

Strategies for dynamic ticket price of high-speed railway

In order to improve the competitiveness of high-speed railway in the passenger transport market,this paper achieves the dual objectives of improving passenger satisfaction and increasing operating income through floating pricing mechanism.Different from previous studies,this paper uses data mining technology to build a daily sales volume database of lines,and uses multi-condition screening method to predict future sales volume.Through real-time verification,the database can be self-purified,the prediction accuracy can be improved,and the real demand for tickets can be restored.The dynamic expectation model is established,and the dynamic fare adjustment model with passenger demand is established by using the dynamic expectation method.Monte Carlo algorithm is used for numerical simulation to verify that the model can improve passenger satisfaction and increase operating income at the same time.