A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.