港湾式公交站点泊位数优化方法

为合理确定港湾式公交停靠站的泊位数,以实际公交站点交通观测数据为基础,从优化公交站点供需平衡的角度分析公交停靠需求与通行能力之间的关系,结合经典的通行能力计算模型,并在模型中添加港湾式公交出站变道造成的延误,建立单位时间内公交停靠需求大于站点通行能力的概率计算方法,在此基础上建立了港湾式公交站点泊位数优化方法.以武汉市中山大道长江二桥公交站点为例,根据站点运行情况将站点公交车排队溢出概率的上限值设定为15%,经计算得出该站点单位时间(1 min)的公交动态停靠需求大于站点通行能力的概率高于15%,通过调整泊位数提高站点通行能力后,通行能力满足公交停靠需求(p<15%),表明该方法能准确确定港湾式公交站点的泊位需求数,为港湾式公交站点泊位数设计提供依据. 

An Optimization Method for Bus Berths of one Bus Bay Stop

In order to reasonably evaluate the number of berths of a bus bay stop,a probability calculation method is proposed based on observed data.This method supposes that demand exceeds supply for bus berths in each unit time, combines with the classical capacity calculation model and considers the delay when buses change lane leaving a bus stop. Moreover,this method analyzes the relationship between berth demand and traffic capacity,from the point view of supply and demand balance of bus berths.The Second Changjiang River Bridge Stop in Wuhan is selected as a study case.Accord-ing to the situation of this bus stop,the upper limit value of bus queue overflow probability is set as 15%.The results show that the probability that demand exceeds supply of this bus stop in one unit time (1 min)is more than 15%.By in-creasing the number of bus berths using this proposed method,the capacit of bus stops can meet the traffic demands (p<15%).This method will be very helpful for berths design of one bus bay stop.