基于对数线性模型的酒后驾驶人的人口特征研究

研究酒后驾驶人的人口社会学特征,有助于提高酒后驾驶交通安全宣传的针对性.搜集某地某年查获的1 072位酒后驾驶人的年龄、性别、户籍和文化程度4个人口学变量的数据,运用线性模型,分析酒后驾驶人在上述4个变量上的分布及其交互关系.结果表明:①酒后驾驶人在年龄、性别、户籍和文化程度4个变量上存在显著差异,男性较之女性、中年较之青年、外地较之本地、高学历较之低学历更多地涉及酒后驾驶;外地较之本地更多涉及酒后驾驶,与既有研究和直觉判断差异较大,反映了当地酒后驾驶安全意识较之外地更好.②4个变量之间均存在显著的二阶交互效应(p<0.01),其中,性别-年龄、性别-户籍等2个二阶效应为正,性别-文化程度、年龄-文化程度、户籍-文化程度与年龄-户籍4个二阶效应为负;表明文化程度调节了性别、年龄、户籍等3个因素对酒后驾驶的影响,年龄调节了户籍对酒后驾驶的影响.调节效应一定程度上解释了酒后驾驶的原因.基于上述结论,提出了改进对酒后驾驶交通安全宣传的策略. 

A Study on Demographics of Drunk Drivers Using a Log-linear Model

A study on the demographics of drunk drivers is conducive to improve the pertinence of traffic safety education.The data of 1 072 drunk drivers concerning four demographic variables, including age, gender, household registration, and educational level, is collected in a city within a one-year period.Afterwards, a log-linear model is developed to analyse the data.The results show that: ① Drunk drivers have significant differences on all the four variables;the male, the elder, the non-local, and the highly educated drivers are more likely to be involved in drunk driving.It finds that the non-local are more involved in drunk driving than the local, which is contrary to current studies and intuitive feelings.Therefore, the local have higher safety awareness than the non-local when it comes to drunk driving;② The interaction effects between two of the four variables are significant (p<0.01);the interaction effects between gender and age, gender and household registration are positive, while the other interaction effects are negative.Educational level adjusts the impacts of age, gender, and household registration.Age adjusts impacts of household registration on drink driving.The adjustment can explain the cause of drunk driving to a certain extent.Finally, based on this study, counter-measures about how to improve traffic safety education on drunk driving are discussed.