预测路基沉降的一种新模型

大量的工程实践表明,多级加载的施工方法使路基沉降曲线呈“台阶状”发展。结合相对时间坐标系的概念,提出了一种改进的指数预测模型及其分级预测方法,并对双曲线模型进行了推广。改进的模型比原模型少一个参数,更适合于荷载恒定期的沉降预测,特别是工后沉降预测。应用改进的模型对苏嘉杭高速公路近三年的工后沉降观测数据进行了拟合和预测,验证了拟合和短期预测的精度,并对两种模型的中长期预测值进行了比较。

A New Model for Predicting Embankment Settlement

Lots of engineering examples show that multi-stage loadings make the embankment settle in a "step"development tendency.According to the concept of relative time coordinate system,a new exponent model and its grade predicting method are proposed.Compared with the traditional predicting model,the proposed exponent model saves one parameter,and also more suitable for predicting the settlement during the time of invariable loads,especially the post-construction settlement of embankment.This model is applied to predicting the approximately three years' post-construction settlement of Sujiahang expressway and to forecast the future settlement.Comparison with the observation data validates the precision of fitting and short-term forecast.Comparisons are also made between medium and long-term settlement values predicted by two different models respectively.