基于博弈论的区域客运通道市场均衡研究

针对区域交通网络与城市交通网络在客运需求结构和市场化程度方面的差异,研究竞争条件下区域客运通道市场均衡状态的预测方法。依据区域交通网络需求特征,构建双层结构博弈模型研究区域客运通道市场内部运行机理。上层是运输方式间完全信息动态博弈,下层为各类出行者广义纳什博弈,模型包括票价、服务频率以及运输工具定员等决策变量对运输方式成本、收益及出行者效用的影响,同时反映出行者决策对运输方式策略的调整作用。算法以最优化理论为基础求解上层博弈的纳什均衡,并将下层博弈等价为一个变分不等式,用对角化算法得到广义纳什均衡,最后通过迭代得到整个模型的近似均衡。以京沪客运通道为例验证模型性能,结果表明:京沪间高速铁路运营将使旅客出行总成本降低,尤其对时间价值较高的旅客;模型较好地模拟运输方式与出行者相互作用的动态过程,为区域交通规划及设计运输产品提供参考。

Research on Market Equilibrium of Regional Passenger Transport Corridors Based on Game Theory

In view of the differences in the passenger traffic demand structure and marketization degree between the regional transport network and urban traffic network,the method to forecast the state of market equilibrium in regional passenger transport corridors under competition was studied.According to the characteristics of demand of regional transport networks,the bi-level game model was built to simulate the internal operating mechanism of regional passenger transport corridors.The upper level represented complete information dynamic gaming among transport modes;the lower level represented generalized Nash gaming among all types of travellers.The model demonstrated the impact of variables such as fares,service frequencies and vehicle capacity on operation costs,benefit and utility of travellers and reflected the role of travellers’ choices in adjusting transport modes strategies.The upper level Nash gaming equilibrium was solved on the basis of the optimization theory;the lower level gaming was transformed into an equivalent variational indeterminate form and the generalized Nash equilibrium was obtained with the diagonalization algorithm;then the approximate equilibrium of the whole model was reached by iteration.Study by the case of the Beijing-Shanghai Transport Corridor verifies performance of the bi-level model,and the results show as follows: Operation of the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway reduces the total travel costs of travellers,especially for travellers to whom time means of high value;the model can well simulate the dynamic process of interaction between transport modes and travellers and can provide reference to regional transport planning and transportation products designing.