长江上游涪陵至丰都段航道水运量分析预测

涪陵至丰都河段是联系长江上游与中下游的重要运输通道,水运量分析预测对该段航道的建设规划具有重要意义。提出采用长江干线主要港口进出港货运数据,基于港口和航道的位置关系来统计航道水运量及流向等。结果表明该河段水运量从2000年的1 241万t增长到2016年的1. 604 4亿t,上下行水运量占比分别为66%和34%,贡献了三峡过闸货运量的94%,矿建材料、矿石、钢材、煤炭、石油和集装箱等主要货种占水运量的73%。提出采用回归分析法、弹性系数法、指数平滑法和投入产出法分别考虑腹地GDP、产业结构、运输结构等多因素对水运量的影响。预测表明:工程河段水运量呈持续增长趋势,但增长速度逐步减缓,2045年水运量达到3. 233 3亿t,主要货物水运量占总水运量的86%。水运量分析预测方法和结果可为航道的建设规划提供支撑。

Analysis and prediction on waterway freight from Fuling to Fengdu reach in the Upper Yangtze River

The Fuling to Fengdu reach is an important waterway connecting the upper and lower Yangtze River,so the analysis and prediction of waterway freight volume are of great significance to the construction plan of the waterway.This study proposes the use of freight data of the main ports along the Yangtze River,and calculates the waterway freight and its flow direction based on the location relationship between ports and waterways.Results show that the waterway freight volume of the waterway has increased from 12.41 million tons in 2 000 to 160.44 million tons in 2016,with the proportion of up and down water freight accounting for 66% and 34% respectively,contributes 94% of the freight volume of the Three Gorges Ship Lock,and the main cargo types such as mineral construction materials,ore,steel,coal,oil and containers accounting for 73% of the water freight.It is proposed to use regression analysis method,elastic coefficient method,exponential smoothing method and input-output method to consider the impacts of multiple factors such as the hinterland GDP,industrial structure,and transportation structure on waterway freight volume.The prediction indicates that the waterway freight of the waterway will continue to increase,but the growth rate will gradually slow down.The waterway freight will reach 323.33 million tons in 2045,and the main cargo accounts for 86% of the total waterway freight.The analysis and prediction methods and results of waterway freight in this study can provide support for the construction plan of the waterway.