考虑出行效用的空铁联运需求研究

文章从出行效用角度出发对空铁联运旅客需求进行研究。结合前景理论与后悔理论提出基础效用、风险感知效用和欣喜效用,基于转换的重力模型优化效用函数,得到腹地城市-高铁-航班的旅客需求预测模型。以南京禄口国际机场为目标机场,综合长三角机场群中旅客吞吐量大于1 000万的机场、距离最近的十个机场以及根据行政划分的江苏省所有机场进行空铁联运旅客需求研究。基于Wilson模型提高空铁联运辐射半径的预测精度,构建腹地城市年人均出行次数与人均GDP的关系式,得到腹地城市的空铁联运旅客需求,并进一步根据旅客出行效用评估进行空铁联运客流分配,为机场准确识别出空铁联运需求。

Research on Passenger Demand of Air-Rail Intermodal Transport Considering Passenger Travel Utility

This paper studies the passenger demand of air-rail intermodal transport from the perspective of travel utility. Combined with prospect theory and regret theory, it proposes basic utility, risk perception utility and gratification utility. Based on the converted gravity model, the utility function is optimized, and the passenger demand forecasting model of hinterland city-HSR-flight is obtained. Taking Nanjing Lukou International Airport as the target airport, it studies the passenger demand of air rail intermodal transportation by integrating the airports with passenger throughput greater than 10 million, the nearest ten airports and all airports in Jiangsu Province according to the administrative division. Based on Wilson model, the prediction accuracy of air rail combined transport radiation radius is improved, and the relationship between annual per capita travel times and per capita GDP of hinterland cities is constructed, and the passenger demand of air rail combined transportation in hinterland cities is obtained. Finally, according to the passenger travel utility evaluation, the air rail intermodal passenger flow distribution is carried out to accurately identify the demand for the airport.