| 改进的BP神经网络在铁路客运量时间序列预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王卓,王艳辉,贾利民,李平.改进的BP神经网络在铁路客运量时间序列预测中的应用[J].中国铁道科学,2005,26(2):127-131. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王卓 王艳辉 贾利民 李平 |
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| 作者单位： | 铁道科学研究院,电子计算技术研究所,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前铁路客运量预测方法的不足,采用改进的BP神经网络对铁路客运量时间序列进行预测。分析改进的BP神经网络原理,对1980年—1998年的铁路客运量进行归一化处理,建立铁路客运量时间序列神经网络预测模型,设计网络参数,进行网络学习与训练的仿真试验。对比分析改进的BP神经网络与标准的BP神经网络预测结果,证明改进的BP神经网络预测结果更准确,精度更高。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路客运量 运量预测 神经网络 改进的BP 时间序列 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4632(2005)02-0127-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月4日 |
The Application of Improved BP Neural Network in the Prediction of Railway Passenger Volume Time Serial |
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| WANG Zhuo,WANG Yan-hui,JIA Li-min,LI Ping.The Application of Improved BP Neural Network in the Prediction of Railway Passenger Volume Time Serial[J].China Railway Science,2005,26(2):127-131. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhuo WANG Yan-hui JIA Li-min LI Ping |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at the shortcomings of the prediction methods for the passenger traffic volume of railways, the improved BP neural network is adopted to predict the time serial of the railway passenger traffic volume. The improved BP neural network theory is analyzed.The railway passenger traffic volume from 1980 to 1998 is normalized.The time serial neural network prediction model of railway passenger traffic volume is set up.The network parameters is designed.The network learning and training simulation experiment is carried out.The prediction result of the improved and normal BP neural network is compared and analyzed. The prediction result of the improved BP neural network is proved to be more accurate and precise. |
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| Keywords: | Railway passenger traffic volume Traffic volume prediction Neural network Improved BP Time serial |
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