失效相关的道路网络系统连通可靠度向量

应用可靠度向量分析方法,研究了具有中介状态的失效相关的城市道路网络系统的连通可靠性.把具有“安全—中介—失效”3种运营状态的单元或系统转化为“安全—非安全”和“非失效—失效”两种工作状态模式来求解路网安全概率和失效概率,从而计算出中介概率.通过实例研究了节点具有可靠度向量的分析方法,又分析了失效相关系数对系统的影响.发现相关失效对道路网系统的可靠度向量影响很大,要提高可靠度的话必须尽可能的降低相关程度,就需要尽量降低破坏事件对周边影响的扩大,减少受影响路径单元个数.该方法能够全面描速道路网运营状态,并且考虑了单元相关性,符合实际,具有一定的理论和应用价值.

Connectivity Reliability Vector of Road Network System with Failure Dependence

The connectivity reliability of urban road network system with failure dependence is studied by a reliability vector method. The system and its elements all have three work states which are secure state, in- termediate state, and failure state. The three states are combined into two operating modes to solve the safe probability and the failure probability. The two modes are ＂secure-insecure＂ and ＂non-failure-failure＂. Then we can compute the intermediate probability. The technique of nodes with reliability vector is put forward through two examples. The influence of the coefficient of the failure dependence is analyzed. Ifs pointed that the parameter has a severe impact on the system reliability vector. We should minimize the effect of the destruction event on the surrounding and reduce the quantities of the affected path units as far as possible to increase the reliability. The results show that the method can fully describe the running status of road network, and it＇s realistic to consider the correlation of road units. The research findings have certain values in theory and application.