基于Wiener过程的城市轨道交通车辆轮对可靠性评估

为探究城市轨道交通（简称：城轨）车辆轮对的轮径值退化规律，有效评估轮对可靠性，提出基于Wiener过程的城轨车辆轮对可靠性评估方法。选取轮径值作为性能退化指标，建立基于Wiener过程的城轨车辆轮对退化模型。通过计算轮对剩余寿命，选择精度最高的退化模型进行可靠性评估。针对退化模型参数后验分布计算公式较为复杂的问题，采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC,Markov Chain Monte Carlo）方法进行求解。基于广州地铁8号线列车轮对实测数据进行实例验证，结果表明，城轨车辆应保证轮对可靠度不低于0.9，且在镟修后运行至27.51万km时，应检查轮对退化情况，以保障车辆的运行安全。

Wheelset reliability evaluation of urban rail transit vehicles based on Wiener process

In order to explore the degradation law of wheel diameter value of urban rail vehicle wheelsets and effectively evaluate the reliability of wheelsets, this paper proposed a wheelsets reliability evaluation method of urban rail transit vehicles based on Wiener process. The paper selected the wheel diameter value as the performance degradation index, and established the wheelset degradation model of urban rail vehicles based on the Wiener process. By calculating the remaining life of the wheelset, the paper selected the degradation model with the highest accuracy to evaluate the reliability. Aiming at the complex problem of calculating the posterior distribution formula of the parameters of the degradation model, the paper used the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to solve the problem. Based on the actual measurement data of the wheel sets of trains on Guangzhou Metro Line 8, the verification results show that urban rail vehicles should ensure that the reliability of the wheel sets is not less than 0 9. After turning and running to 275 100 km, the degradation of the wheel set should be checked to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle.