碳中和目标下氢能源在我国运输业中的发展路径

氢能是未来能源系统清洁转型的重要二次能源。本文首先调研分析了美国、欧盟、日本既 有的氢能研发总体战略及其实施情况；结合氢能源的优势和未来全球碳减排的任务，分析了氢能 关键技术研发、产业化发展、交通运输行业推广应用情况；从技术角度比较了美国、欧盟、日本的 氢能技术推广策略，指出我国氢能研发技术的国际差距。结合实际统计数据，分析了我国铁路、 公路、水运和民航等运输方式的碳排放水平。在氢能既有特性参数基础上，测算了氢能在道路、铁 路等不同领域应用的碳减排效果。结果发现：氢能替代公路货运10%，可减碳7000万t；1000万t 氢用于替代道路货运可获得近1亿t的碳减排量。本文研究提出了氢能研发与应用策略，建立可 再生能源与氢能综合互补调节机制，如近期利用西部地区可再生发电的弃电降低电解水制氢成 本，利用灰氢替代燃油，中远期推广扩大氢燃料电池市场等。本文还研究了交通运输业适合氢能 发展的重点领域，分析表明：2060年氢能在道路交通中的应用如能达到4000万t，可望实现交通运 输业减碳约4亿t。本文结合我国国情提出了碳中和目标下将氢能技术与产品推广到大功率、长 距离以及冬季低温地区客货运输领域，与既有电动汽车发展战略一道打造绿色交通体系的对策 与建议。

On Development Path of Hydrogen Energy Technology in China's Transportation System Under Carbon Neutrality Goal

Hydrogen energy is an important secondary energy for the clean transformation of the future energy system. In this paper, we first investigate the research, development, and implementation strategy of hydrogen energy in the USA, EU, and Japan. With the advantages of hydrogen energy and the future task of global carbon emissions reduction, we then analyze the key technologies research, industrial development, and transportation industry application on hydrogen energy. The promotion strategies of hydrogen energy technologies in the USA, EU, and Japan are compared from the technical point of view. And the gap in hydrogen energy technologies between China and the countries was pointed out. Based on the actual statistical data, the carbon emissions of railway, highway, water, and air transportation in China are analyzed. With the characteristic parameters of hydrogen energy, the effect of hydrogen energy application on carbon emission reduction is calculated in different fields, such as road and railway. The results show that the carbon emissions are reduced by 70 million tons if the hydrogen energy can reach 10% in energy consumption of road freight transportation, using 10 million tons of hydrogen could reduce nearly 100 million tons of carbon emissions. Wepropose the research and application strategy of hydrogen energy and establish the comprehensive complementary regulation mechanism of renewable energy and hydrogen energy. For example, the abandoned electricity of renewable power generation in western China can be used recently to reduce the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water, gray hydrogen can be used to replace fuel oil, and the market of the hydrogen fuel cell can be expanded in the medium and long term. We also study the key fields which are suitable for hydrogen energy development in the transportation industry. The analysis shows that if the application of hydrogen energy in road transportation can reach 40 million tons in 2060, it is expected to achieve a carbon emission reduction of about 400 million tons in the transportation industry. Under the goal of the carbon neutrality, we propose suggestions of promoting hydrogen energy technology and products in passenger and freight transportation of high-power, long-distance, and low-temperature areas and building a green transportation system together with the existing development strategy of electric vehicles.