多类信息对机场出站乘客交通方式选择的影响

在机场设置可变信息板(Variable Message Signboard, VMS)提供站台排队时间、道路拥堵状 况和车内拥挤度等信息，引导乘客在原有决策的基础上做出最优交通方式选择。根据出行信息 获取的顺序将决策过程分为两阶段，第1阶段是在自身经验或手机导航信息条件下进行初始交通 方式选择，第2阶段考虑到VMS信息对乘客的影响，建立基于巢式Logit模型的乘客交通方式转 移模型，利用全概率公式将两阶段信息数据融合，得到乘客交通方式选择结果。通过数值模拟验 证模型的可用性。结果发现：将信息质量足够高的等车时间信息、道路拥堵时间和车内拥挤度信 息结合有利于提高公共交通利用率和系统运行效率，可使公共交通利用率提高3%，系统运行时 间减少13.8%；道路拥堵越严重，路上拥堵时间信息的提供对乘客的交通方式选择影响越大；交通 需求较小的情况下提供VMS信息有利于提高机场巴士利用率。

Impact of Multiple Types of Information on Airport Outbound Passengers' Traffic Mode Selection

This paper proposes to set up the variable message signs (VMS) in the airport to provide information such as queuing time, road congestion and transit service levels, so as to guide passengers to make the best choice of traffic mode on the basis of the original decision. Considering the order of obtaining travel information, the decision-making process can be divided into two stages. In the first stage, passengers select the travel mode depends on the individual experiences or mobile navigation information. In the second stage, the VMS information would affect the passengers' selections. The passenger mode transfer model based on the Nested Logit model is established, and the information data of the two stages are fused by the full probability formula to obtain the passenger' traffic mode selections. The effectiveness of the model is verified through numerical simulations. The results show that the high quality and combination of waiting time information, road congestion information and transit service information is beneficial to improve the utilization rate of public transport and system operation efficiency, which can increase the utilization rate of public transport by 3% and reduce the system operation time by 13.8%. The more congested the road condition is, the more important the road information to the passenger's traffic mode selections. When the traffic demand is light, providing VMS information can still improve the utilization rate of airport buses.