基于随机系数Logit模型的城市群城际出行方式选择行为研究

以粤港澳大湾区城市群的广深城际运输通道为例，分析城际运输通道中影响旅客出行方式选择行为的因素及其影响。传统的多项式Logi（tMNL）模型具有无关方案独立性，无法对不同出行者的选择偏好差异进行定量分析，故应用随机系数Logit模型分析城际交通出行选择行为。选取城际出行旅客的个人社会经济属性、心理潜变量（对交通方式舒适性、可靠性和便捷性的心理感受）、城际出行方式特征变量设计问卷。采用线上与线下相结合的方式开展问卷调查，共收集534份问卷，基于此建立并求解随机系数Logit模型。随机系数Logit模型估计结果的伪R2为0.178，表明模型具有良好的拟合度。研究结果表明:城际出行旅客的收入、职业、私家车保有情况、家庭儿童数量以及对出行方式便捷性的感知对其选择行为有显著影响；而出行方式的舒适性、可靠性对城际出行方式的选择行为影响不显著；改善交通方式的便捷性对提升城际出行方式的吸引力起关键作用。因此，在城际交通规划设计、运营管理中应着重考虑便捷性对城际交通方式选择带来的影响。 

An Analysis of Mode Choice Behavior of Inter-city Travel in Urban Agglomeration Areas Using a Random-parameter Logit Model

In order to study the impact factors of mode choices of travel modes in inter-city transport, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen inter-city transport corridor in the Great Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao in China is taken as a case study. Given that traditional multinomial Logit models have the issue of independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) and they cannot be used to analyze heterogeneous preferences of travelers, a random-parameter Logit model is applied in this study. An online/offline survey is carried out and a total of 534 questionnaires are obtained. In the survey, information including socio-economic attributes of travelers, psychological latent variables (i. e., perceptions toward comfort, reliability, and convenience of travel modes), and attributes of modes for inter-city travel is collected, with which a random-parameter Logit model is developed and estimated. The pseudo R2 of the model is 0.178 at convergence, indicating a good model fit. The estimation results show that the income, occupation, car ownership, number of children in a family, and the perception toward the convenience of travel modes have a significant impact on the mode choice behavior of inter-city travel in urban agglomeration areas, while comfort and reliability of inter-city travel modes are not. Meanwhile, improving the convenience of inter-city travel modes plays a key role in improving their attractiveness. In this sense, special attention should be given to the convenience of the inter-city travel modes in the process of inter-city transport planning and management.