Application of traffic microsimulation for evaluating safety performance of urban signalized intersections |
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| Institution: | 1. Public Works Engineering Department, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L3G1, Canada;3. Department of Civil Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street Toronto, Ontario M5B 2K3, Canada;1. Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, 1 Create Way, 138602 Singapore, Singapore;2. Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre, 2749 Via Enrico Fermi, 21027 Ispra, Italy;3. National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, 101 Av. Do Brasil, 1700-066 Lisbon, Portugal;4. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;1. Department of Civil, Geo, Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, München 80333, Germany;2. DGNSS Solutions, LLC, Columbus, OH 43212, United States;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4742, United States;4. Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, United States;1. Mercer University, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida International University, 10555 West Flagler Street, EC 3720, Miami, FL, 33174, United States;3. Texas A&M Transportation Institute, United States;4. Florida State University, United States;5. University of North Florida, United States |
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| Abstract: | The primary objective of this paper is to provide a statistical relationship between traffic conflicts estimated from microsimulation and observed crashes in order to evaluate safety performance, in particular the effect of countermeasures. A secondary objective is to assess the effect of conflict risk tolerance and number of simulation runs on the estimates of countermeasure effects so obtained. Conflicts were simulated for a sample of signalized intersections from Toronto, Canada, using VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation and several crash–conflict relationships were obtained. A separate sample of treated intersections from Toronto was used to compare countermeasure effects from the integrated crash–conflict expression to a conventional, but rigorous crash-based Empirical Bayes before-and-after analysis that was already done, with the results published, for the same sites and treatment. The countermeasure considered for this investigation involved changing the left turn signal operation for the treated intersection sample from permissive to protected-permissive. The results support the view that countermeasure effects can be estimated reliably from conflicts derived from microsimulation, and more so when a suitable number of simulation runs and conflict tolerance thresholds are used in the crash–conflict relationship. |
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| Keywords: | Crash modification factors Safety performance Traffic microsimulation VISSIM Conflicts Surrogate measures |
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