A model of bus bunching under reliability-based passenger arrival patterns |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Transport Research Institute, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK;2. Kyoto University, Department of Urban Management, C1-2-436, Katsura Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan;3. Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds University, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;1. National Technical University of Athens, GR-15780, Zografou, Greece;2. Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART), Singapore 138602, Singapore;3. Google Inc., Mountain View, CA 94043, USA;4. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA;1. Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University, Six Metrotech Center, 4th Floor, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;2. Department of Mathematics, School of Sciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China;3. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;4. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand;5. Institute of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand;1. Laboratoire Ingénierie Circulation Transport (LICIT), ENTPE – IFSTTAR, Université de Lyon, Rue Maurice Audin, F-69518 Vaulx-en-Velin, France;2. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, United States |
| |
| Abstract: | If bus service departure times are not completely unknown to the passengers, non-uniform passenger arrival patterns can be expected. We propose that passengers decide their arrival time at stops based on a continuous logit model that considers the risk of missing services. Expected passenger waiting times are derived in a bus system that allows also for overtaking between bus services. We then propose an algorithm to derive the dwell time of subsequent buses serving a stop in order to illustrate when bus bunching might occur. We show that non-uniform arrival patterns can significantly influence the bus bunching process. With case studies we find that, even without exogenous delay, bunching can arise when the boarding rate is insufficient given the level of overall demand. Further, in case of exogenous delay, non-uniform arrivals can either worsen or improve the bunching conditions, depending on the level of delay. We conclude that therefore such effects should be considered when service control measures are discussed. |
| |
| Keywords: | Bus bunching Passenger arrival process Service reliability |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
