| 基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输安全性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘涛,潘建中,周万枝,鲁晓丽,谢新连.基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输安全性评价[J].中国水运,2007,7(10):193-195. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘涛 潘建中 周万枝 鲁晓丽 谢新连 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院，大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院，大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院，大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院，大连海事大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省交通科技项目2006R062 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据对渤海湾客滚运输事故原因的统计分析,建立了基于故障树分析技术的客滚运输航行风险分析模型。利用Semanderes算法求出故障树的最小割集,对客滚运输安全进行定性分析。基于容斥定理设计了顶事件概率的求解算法,计算出了各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度,进而对客滚运输安全进行定量分析。通过综合分析得出影响客滚运输安全的重要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 故障树分析 客滚运输 安全 最小割集 重要度 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7973(2007)09-0193-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年6月30日 |
Safey evaluation using Fault Tree Analysis on the ro/ro passenger vessels |
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| Liu Tao,Pan Jianzhong,Zhou Wanzhi,Lu Xiaoli,Xie Xinlian.Safey evaluation using Fault Tree Analysis on the ro/ro passenger vessels[J].China Water Transport,2007,7(10):193-195. |
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| Authors: | Liu Tao Pan Jianzhong Zhou Wanzhi Lu Xiaoli Xie Xinlian |
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| Institution: | Liu Tao Pan Jianzhong Zhou Wanzhi Lu Xiaoli Xie Xinlian |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistic evidence of the main accidents involving the ro/ro passenger vessels in Bohai bay, a risk analysis model is established using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for systematically analyzing the factors that generate the shipping risk. The system risk is analyzed based on the minimum cut sets which are solved using the Semanderes algorithm. The calculation of the probability of the top event is based on the inclusive-exclusive theorem, and the probability importance degree and key importance degree are also educed. Through the integrated analysis, important factors of ro/ro passenger vessels safety are aggregated. |
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| Keywords: | fault tree analysis ro/ro passenger vessel transportation safety minimum cut set importance degree |
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