| 隧道变形预测的灰色与回归模型对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏才初,卞跃威,金磊.隧道变形预测的灰色与回归模型对比分析[J].西部交通科技,2010(1):5-8,13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏才初 卞跃威 金磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海,200092;同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省交通厅计划科技项目"复杂地质条件下隧道安全施工保障技术研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 模型预测法是目前常用的隧道围岩变形预测的方法之一。文章结合广梧高速公路茶林顶隧道工程实例，建立GM（1，1）灰色模型、GM（2，1）灰色模型和双曲函数回归模型分别对隧道围岩变形进行预测，并对各模型的预测情况进行对比分析。结果表明，不论是从短期还是从长期看，GM（1，1）灰色模型都体现了优越的模拟和预测效果，且建立预测模型时不需要大量的统计数据，可应用于工程实际。
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| 关 键 词： | 道路 围岩变形 灰色模型 回归分析 预测 |
A Comparison between Grey and Regression Model for Tunnel Deformation Prediction |
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| XIA Cai-chu,BIAN Yue-wei,JIN Lei.A Comparison between Grey and Regression Model for Tunnel Deformation Prediction[J].Western China Communication Science & Technology,2010(1):5-8,13. |
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| Authors: | XIA Cai-chu BIAN Yue-wei JIN Lei |
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| Institution: | XIA Cai-chu1,2,BIAN Yue-wei1,JIN Lei1,2(1.Department of Geotechnical Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai,200092,2.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical , Underground Engineer of the Ministry of Education,200092) |
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| Abstract: | Using models is a major way to predict the tunnel deformation.Based on the in-situ geodetic measuring records of Cha Lingding Tunnel periphery deformation,two grey models,the GM(1,1) and GM(2,1) and a hyperbolic regression model are established respectively in order to get a prediction of tunnel deformation.It is followed by a comparison between the three models.It can be concluded that the GM(1,1),though based on less data,shows a higher applicability in terms of fitting behavior and precision both in the ... |
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| Keywords: | Tunnel periphery deformation Grey model Regression analysis Prediction |
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