隧道建设碳排放计算方法及预测模型

隧道建设消耗资源和能源，并向环境中排放大量温室气体。为解决当前隧道碳排放计算的清单数据难以获取、隧道施工碳排放难以估计的难题，通过在隧道碳排放方面的长期探索，总结当前中国公路隧道碳排放计算、清单数据、影响机制和排放预测的研究进展。首先，通过调研国内外隧道碳排放计算的文献，介绍隧道建设碳排放计算方法； 其次，结合算例阐明使用数据清单和排放系数评估隧道施工期碳排放的计算方法，明确不同施工工序和材料能源对碳排放的贡献； 然后，基于大量隧道施工碳排放计算结果，使用统计分析方法探明隧道施工碳排放的关键影响因素，并使用线性回归方法建立碳排放预测方程； 最后，针对当前隧道碳排放计算中的2大难题，即难以获取隧道碳排放的基础清单数据、排放数据难以在不同部门和企业中流通，提出发展资源能源计量和区块链技术，促进隧道行业节能减排的持续发展。

Calculation Methods and Prediction Models of Carbon Emission of Tunnel Construction

The tunnel construction consumes resources and energy and emits a large amount of greenhouse gases into the environment. Through the long term exploration of tunnel carbon emission, the current research progress of China′s highway tunnel carbon emission calculation, inventory data, impact mechanism and emission prediction are summarized resulting from difficult collection of tunnel carbon emission calculation data and difficult estimation of tunnel carbon emission. Firstly, the calculation methods of carbon emission during tunnel construction are introduced by investigating the literatures about tunnel construction carbon emission calculation in China and abroad. And then the calculation methods of using data inventory and emission coefficients to evaluate carbon emission during tunnel construction are illustrated with an example, and the contribution of different construction procedures, materials and energy to carbon emission is clarified. In addition, based on a large number of calculation results of tunnel construction emissions, statistical analysis is used to explore the influencing factors of the carbon emissions during tunnel construction, and the linear regression method is used to establish the prediction equations. Finally, in view of the two major problems in the current calculation of tunnel carbon emissions, i.e. difficulty of obtaining basic inventory data of tunnel emissions and difficulty of emission data to circulate among different departments and enterprises, it is proposed to develop resource and energy measurement and block chain technology to promote the sustainable development of energy conservation and emission reduction in the tunnel industry.