基于云模型与D-S证据理论的盾构施工隧道管片上浮风险评价

为定量评价分析盾构隧道管片的上浮风险并进行针对性的风险管控,以武汉地铁8号线黄浦路站-徐家棚站盾构区间段为 背景,构建隧道管片上浮风险评价指标体系和评价标准,建立基于云模型与D-S证据理论的盾构施工隧道管片上浮风险评价模型。 依据工程施工实测数据,对监测区段的上浮风险等级隶属度进行计算,经归一化形成证据并进行D-S证据融合; 基于条件化线性 组合规则,将历史证据与当前时刻证据进行证据更新,得出当前时刻该监测区间上浮风险的安全风险等级为较安全状态,最后针对 安全等级不高的材料因素给出相应的处理措施,为施工阶段隧道管片上浮风险评价与管理提供一种新的思路和方法。

Evaluation of Floating Risk of Shield Tunnel Segments Based on Cloud Model and D-S Evidence Theory

In order to quantitatively evaluate and analyze the floating risk of the shield tunnel and carry out targeted risk control, the floating risk evaluation index system and evaluation standard of the segments of the shield tunnel on Huangpu Road Station-Xujiawang Station of Wuhan Metro Line No. 8 are constructed, and a floating risk evaluation model of the shield tunnel segments is established based on the cloud model and Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence theory. And then the subjection degree of the floating risk level of the monitoring section is calculated according to the engineering construction measurement data, the evidence is formed after naturalization, and D-S evidence fusion is carried out; the historical evidence is updated with the evidence at the present moment based on conditionization linear combination regulation, and the security risk level of the floating risk in the monitoring range is more secure at the present time. Finally, the corresponding treatment measures are given for the material factors with low security level. The results can provide a new idea and method for the evaluation and management of the floating risk of tunnel segments during construction.