Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and Bayesian inference |
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| Institution: | 1. National Technical University “Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute”, Department of Dynamics and Strength of Machines, Frunze str., 21, Kharkiv 61002, Ukraine;2. Riga Technical University, Institute of Materials and Structures, Kalku str.1, Riga LV-1658, Latvia;1. LPTPM, Hassiba Ben Bouali University of Chlef, Esalem City, 02000 Chlef, Algeria;2. Sonatrach/Direction Centrale Recherche & Développement, Avenue du 1er Novembre, 35000 Boumerdès, Algéria;3. Research Center in Industrial Technologies (CRTI), P. O. Box 64, Cheraga, Algiers 16014, Algeria |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with limit state functions proposed in the Recommended Practice DNV-RP-F101 (2010) to evaluate the probability of failure of corroded pipelines during their lifetimes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects. Bayesian reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria, the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. This proposed methodology can provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy of pipeline systems. |
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| Keywords: | Pipeline Corrosion Risk analysis Risk based analysis |
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