基于阻塞流的多场景终端区容量影响机理

为研究终端区容量的影响因素及变化规律和趋势，基于终端区运行特性分析，综合考虑航线长度、飞行速度、管制间隔等因素，采用阻塞流理论和方法，建立了终端区容量网络模型.以杭州萧山机场终端区为例，构建了恶劣天气发生位置、双跑道运行模式等多运行场景，分析了不同因素对终端区容量的作用关系和影响规律.研究结果表明:终端区容量受恶劣天气影响呈不均匀阶梯状递减，下降梯度与航线的可替代性紧密相关，当影响AND方向单一进场航线时，容量下降10~20架次/h；不同的多跑道运行模式下容量相差明显，容量区间在33~108架次/h. 

Effect Mechanism of Multi-scenarios Terminal Capacity Based on Flow Decomposition Barrier

In order to investigate the influence factors and variation trends of terminal capacity, a capacity network model for terminal area was built using the flow decomposition barrier theory according to the terminal area characteristics, in which the length of routes, flight speed, control separation, and other factors were considered. Taking Hangzhou terminal area as an example, multi-scenarios were built about location of bad weather, dual-runway operation pattern, etc., and the effect mechanism and relationship of different influence factors on the terminal capacity was investigated. The results indicate that terminal capacity has a uneven step-like decline due to bad weather, and the descent gradient is closely related to the route substitutability. When the bad weather affect the single route of AND direction, the capacity decreases 10-20 vehicles per hour; the dual-runway capacity differs significantly with different operating patterns, and the capacity ranges from 33 to 108 vehicles per hour.