城市多模式公交网络出行时间可靠性模型研究

随着城市的发展，快速轨道交通和快速公交系统逐渐融入到常规公交系统中，构成了复杂的多模式公交网络，在此公交网络环境下乘客公交出行时间的稳定可靠程度直接影响到公交系统的服务性能，因此，本文以常规公交和地铁组成的典型多模式公交网络为研究对象，利用状态增广技术，建立了换乘约束条件下的出行时间可靠性模型，从而为评价和改善多模式公交网络服务性能提供决策支持。

Research on Travel Time Reliability Model of Multi-mode Public Transport Network

As cities develop quickly, urban rail transit and bus rapid transit gradually inosculate with traditional public transport, and thus form a complicated multi-mode public transport network. The stabilization and reliability of passengers travel time within the public transport network will directly affect the service performance of public transport. This paper, takes typical multi-mode public transport network that composed by urban rail transit and traditional bus transport as the main research object and makes use of state-augmentation method, and therefore set up the travel time reliability model under transfer times restriction, it can provide essential decision support for evaluation and improvement of the multi-modal public transport network services.