基于交通冲突理论的道路安全评价技术研究综述

基于交通冲突理论的道路安全评价技术, 是以交通冲突因素为指标的道路交通安全状态评价技术。在梳理交通冲突影响因素与安全评价基本概念的基础上, 列举了常见的道路安全评价技术应用场景; 从交叉口、高速公路、特定场景3个方面分析了交通冲突的影响因素; 从指标选取、方法选择、模型构建3个方面对道路安全评价技术进行了归纳总结。通过对现有文献的分析可以发现: 在应用场景构建时, 相比于考虑单一冲突因素, 综合考虑交通冲突影响因素, 将使得构建的交通冲突场景更接近实际情况; 在交通安全评价时, 科学选择复合指标、合理使用模糊综合评价和层次分析法构建安全评价方法, 将使构建的安全评价方法更加科学严谨。基于现有研究中存在的问题, 指出了道路安全评价技术未来的研究方向, 主要包括充分利用视频技术和互联网技术, 搭建实时、高效的安全评价模型; 验证现有道路安全评价方法在混合交通流下是否适用; 建立健全混合交通流环境下的道路交通安全评价技术标准和评价体系。 

A Review of Road Safety Evaluation Techniques Based on Traffic Conflict Theories

Road safety evaluation technologies based on traffic conflict theories are considering traffic conflict factors in the road safety evaluation. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of traffic conflict(TC) and the basic concepts of safety evaluation, the common application scenarios of road safety evaluation technology are listed. The influencing factors of traffic conflict are analyzed from three aspects: intersection, expressway, and specific scene. Besides, the road safety evaluation technology is summarized from the following three aspects: index selection, method selection, and model construction.Analysis of existing literature shows that in the construction of application scenarios, compared with the consideration of single conflict factor, comprehensive consideration of influencing factors of TC will make the constructed TC scenarios closer to the actual situation; in traffic safety evaluation, scientific selection of composite indexes, rational use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy method to construct safety evaluation methods will make the constructed safety evaluation methods more scientific and rigorous. Based on the issues identified from the existing studies, the future research direction of road safety evaluation technology is concluded, including making full use of video technology and internet technology to develop real-time and efficient safety evaluation models; verifying the applicability of existing road safety evaluation methods under mixed traffic flow; establishing and improving the evaluation technical standards and evaluation system of road traffic safety under mixed traffic flow environment.