深圳市轨道交通客流预测的新探索

客流预测工作是轨道交通规划设计和建设工作的重要环节和支撑，尤其是随着我国城市轨道交通进入新的发展阶段，灵活的投融资模式、运营管理的创新、线路功能的多样化对轨道交通客流预测工作提出了新的要求。深圳市基于多年轨道客流预测经验积累，在预测方法、研究范围和精度等方面深入探索和创新，在传统的规划、工程设计客流预测基础上，开展了一系列针对投融资方案研究、线路开通初期客流特征分析、旅游景区轨道客流分析等的客流预测工作，支撑具体项目推进，完善和补充客流预测工作体系。

New Exploration of Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecasting in Shenzhen

Passenger flow forecasting is an important component of urban rail transit network planning and construction, particularly with the new development of urban rail transit, such as flexible investment and financing models, innovation in operation management, and diversification of line functions. This has led to higher requirements for rail transit passenger flow forecasting. According to the accumulated experience of years of rail transit passenger flow prediction in Shenzhen, extensive investigation has been performed and innovations have been achieved in forecasting methods, research scope, and precision. In addition, studies have been conducted on investment and financing schemes, the passenger flow characteristic analysis of new lines in initial years, the passenger flow analysis of tourist scenic spots, and so on. These factors support concrete project promotion and the improvement and development of passenger flow forecasting systems.