基于灰色理论的城市轨道交通短期客流预测研究

城市轨道交通短期客流的预测是制定列车调度计划、车站客运组织工作的关键。在研究城市轨道交通的断面客流特征的基础上，建立基于灰色预测的城市轨道交通短期客流预测模型，提出通过若干组连续历史客流数据构建灰色预测模型，以此类推对未来客流进行预测。以某城市轨道交通网络客流为例进行计算，得到预测数据与真实数据误差较小，验证了该模型与方法的有效性。

Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Based on Grey Theory

The short-term forecast of urban rail transit passenger flow is the key to develop and adjust train plan, and support passenger organization of the stations. Based on the research of the characteristics of urban rail transit section passenger flow, the urban rail transit passenger flow short-term forecasting model was established based on Grey Theory. Grey prediction model was proposed by several groups of continuous historical passenger flow data to forecast the future passenger flow. The rail transit passenger flow of one city was used as a calculation example. The result shows that the deviation between forecast data and real data is small, which can verify the effectiveness of the model and method.