| 基于Gompertz模型的公路交通量分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱学坤,彭婷婷.基于Gompertz模型的公路交通量分析与预测[J].交通标准化,2013(1):100-102. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱学坤 彭婷婷 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西交通职业技术学院,江西南昌,330013 |
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| 摘 要： | 低等级公路特别是县乡公路的交通量预测宜采用时间序列模型,有三种预测模型:二次多项式曲线、指数曲线和Gompertz曲线.实例分析表明,Gompertz曲线的预测模型能够较真实地反映交通量的发展,较为准确地预测交通量.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通量 二次多项式曲线 指数曲线 Gompertz曲线 低等级公路 |
Analysis and Forecast of Highway Traffic Volume based on Gompertz |
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| ZHU Xue-kun and PENG Ting-ting.Analysis and Forecast of Highway Traffic Volume based on Gompertz[J].Communications Standardization,2013(1):100-102. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Xue-kun and PENG Ting-ting |
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| Institution: | (Jiangxi Communications Vocational Technical College,Nanchang 330013,China) |
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| Abstract: | The model of time series is suitable for the traffic volume forecast of low grade highway, especially county and township highway, which has three models, i.e. quadratic polynomial curve, exponential curve and Gompertz curve. Example analysis shows that Gompertz curve forecast model can truly reflect the traffic volume development and make an accurate forecast. |
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| Keywords: | traffic volume quadratic polynomial curve exponential curve Gompertz curve low grade highway |
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