西安地铁2号线南段运营初期客流预测

以西安地铁2号线南延段开通日期为预测年限,通过设计、实施客流调查及AFC(自动售检票)系统数据分析,深入探讨2号线南段现状客流出行特征及既有线上的客流规律,运用在既有客流规律基础上的趋势推演法,通过标定车站客流与土地利用、到离站交通距离与地铁车站选择、合理轨道乘距等数学模型,从客运量与断面客流量两方面完成其开通初期的客流预测,为2号线南段开通的运输计划编制提供依据,为后期新线开通的客流预测积累经验。

Forecasting Passenger Flow of Southern Extension of Line No.2 of Xi 'an Subway on Its Operation early

In this paper, the forecast period is for opening date on the south extension of the metro line 2, Basing on designs and implementations of passenger flow investigation, and analysis of the data in AFC system. This paper probed deeply analysis the trip characteristic of the status passenger flow and passenger flow law on the existing lines. Used trends deduction method based on existing passenger flow rules, through the calibration of passenger flow and land use, the transportation distance and subway station selection, and reasonable travel distance. To complete the forecast passenger flow from two aspects of passenger traffic and the volume of section passenger flow. It provided a basis for the transportation planning on its operation early, and accumulated experience of passenger flow prediction for the late new line.